Daily Gold Analysis | Jan 31, 2026 (Wednesday)
Hi, so after a few days of pause, we’re back. The reason for the break and why I didn’t post a new analysis video was that I myself haven’t been trading these days. I wasn’t trading because of the market conditions, since during this bullish move, it was impossible to enter because at any moment this move could have… we could have in this bullish trend tried to make a profit and ended up losing all our capital.
We were expecting a drop from here (zone: 5090$), but contrary to our expectations, the market surged very strongly, and it made some moves and it reached some strange and unbelievable prices that no one could have imagined. And after that, it started… it led to a very strange drop, a very, very manipulative move. You could say a cunning manipulation happened in the market. But where are we in the market right now? Should we be afraid? In my opinion, yes and no. If you don’t set a stop-loss, if you don’t define your loss limit, you definitely should be afraid.
But what I see here in the market is from the last bottom we had in the market, which is here, or better to say the start of our movement was from here (4271$). But anyway, let’s consider it from here to check and see what the situation is like. We see it’s 11.80% (5443$). Our Fibonacci, as always, has worked very, very well, and the market has experienced a drop. If we had entered the market here, and I myself was in the market at that time, naturally I would have entered here and could have made a very good profit from the market.
But right now, what I’m considering is that, well, we didn’t enter here and this isn’t a place where we can enter now (zone: 4669$) either, although here we saw the Fibonacci between 61 and 78%. That is, if we draw a Fibonacci here, it still hasn’t touched the 50% level (4672$). What am I expecting? My expectation is that the market will give us another drop, that is, we might see below this price, around 4,600 or so. We might even see lower than that. Of course, if we see lower than this, below this level – let me mark it here for you – this level we have here, which is the 50% Fibonacci between 61 and 78% (4680-4657$), if we see below this, then that’s it; we should consider the market done for and assume that it’s negative.
But from right here where we are now (4680$), or we can expect with the start of the market on Monday, up to this point, we might see a move. If we see here that the market, for example, shows us something like this, if we see that the market shows us something like this (Downtrend line) and forms a bottom here and wants to move from this point to the upside, we can go along with it up to where? Up to this area, we can follow it up to 5400.
If we want to look at it from the perspective that, well, manipulation happens in the market and the fear, greed, and behavioral analysis of traders can make for a really interesting move: they bring the market down here (4669$), and at this point everyone loses hope, they sell their assets, and here the big players in the market make their purchases. Up to this area, again (5435$), everyone in this whole process triggers all their fear and greed, making them want to re-enter the market. They make their gold purchases, and when we reach this point in the market (5435$), we need to watch the reaction and see what happens. Will it start to drop again from here, or could it even reach new highs from this point?
But right now, what we’re considering is whether the market will move from right here with the start of the market on Monday, or if there will be a drop here down to these zones (4680-4657$), which are also good areas for a reversal. It could even come down to, for example, this zone as well (4680-4641$), which is a broken high, and we can expect the market to start again from here to move upward. This is still an expectation we can have from the market.
It’s not really like what everyone thinks, that the market has become extremely strange and that gold is done for. It hasn’t collapsed or anything like that. Gold is an asset that always maintains its value, so control yourself and don’t expect gold to just suddenly drop to crash, because it has already experienced enough of a decline. And the news that came out wasn’t really anything extraordinary; it was simply a replacement or change of a manager in the future section or the Federal Reserve management. It’s a reserve that’s supposed to be handled by Mr. Trump, and this can’t be the reason for this movement.
What caused this movement is actually the move we saw here (5599-4661$). When we see such a move in the market, naturally, this scenario is also very, very likely in the market, and it becomes a very, very standard and predictable move. So for those individuals who talk about exactly how much gold has dropped in value, they should also carefully consider how much gold actually went up during that same game, right? It is a balanced perspective.
So we expect that when the market drops, it will collect liquidity again to move to higher levels. But considering that now it has already passed 38% and 50%, we can expect it to come down to these areas (4680-4641$) and from here we might see a sharp drop in gold.
