Daily Gold Analysis | Dec 30, 2025 (Tuesday)

Intro and Econ News Review

Hey friends, hope you’re having a great day. We’re diving into today’s gold analysis for December 30, 2025. First, let’s check Forex Factory to see what’s on the calendar. We don’t have much major economic news today, except for the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 11:00 PM Dubai time (which is 10:30 PM Iran time).

Trade Review and Gold’s Movement

Now, let’s look at the price. Gold dropped just like we predicted yesterday, though it didn’t go quite as low as I expected. I usually try to place my trades around 9:30 AM Dubai time (9:00 AM Iran time), which is often a market turning point. That’s exactly what happened here (short-term bearish move around $4,514). I opened a trade with a stop loss at $4,562 and set my take profit at $4,490, and it hit the TP.

Buy Positions and Rebound Predictions

The market actually dropped even further than that. I originally wanted to hit “Buy Market” there, but the downward slope was so steep that I decided to hold off. Right now, I actually have a buy position open from last night—around midnight, I think—with a stop loss below $4,300 (at $4,297). My target for this one is $4,500. Honestly, I’m a bit in two minds about whether the market can fully reverse this steep slide.

However, since we didn’t see a massive amount of volume during those recent bearish candles, there’s a good chance the market could reclaim the $4,500 area and maybe even push higher.

Technical Analysis and Fibonacci Targets

I don’t want to make any wild predictions, but if you switch to the 4-hour timeframe, we’re in “extension” territory. Since the price is at levels it’s never seen before, Fibonacci is the best tool to use.

If we pull up the Fib levels, the next target for this trade would be $4,689. Since I’ve already secured my profits for the week, I’ve moved this trade to “risk-free” and set my TP at $4,680. But, if you haven’t hit your weekly goal yet, you might want to set your TP around $4,444, depending on your lot size.

Trade Management and Optimal Entries

If we were to take a long position right where we are now (around $4,380), you could easily exit with a 1:1 ratio by placing a solid stop loss under the current candle. If you’re hunting for a better Risk-to-Reward (RR), you might want to wait for a slight pullback, as it’s very likely we’ll see a dip toward the $4,360 zone.

If it hits $4,360, you can look for buying volume once the London session opens. Opening a trade there gives you a much more reasonable RR—something like 1:2—before you exit. Of course, you could just sit today out and wait, but from what I’m seeing, the market still looks bullish. Here’s why:

Daily Trend and Long-Term Goals

If we look at the Daily timeframe, we closed at a really good spot. We had a great close right at the breakout point (around $4,330), so there’s a high probability the market rallies toward at least $4,680. You could also use $4,470 or the $4,500 area as your next TP, because the market might react there, pull back, and then resume its move up.

Exit Strategy and New Year Holidays

Like I said, we’re scalpers—or more accurately, intraday traders. We do trades that last a few hours and we usually close everything by the end of the day. My personal TP is set at $4,689, but if the market closes somewhere else this evening, no worries—I’ll just take my profit right there and wait for tomorrow.

One important note: Today and tomorrow are fine, but the market will be closed on January 1, 2026, for New Year’s Day. Because of that, we definitely need to lock in profits today or tomorrow and be out of the market so we can enjoy the holiday. We can get back into it after the break.

Analysis vs. Trading

Just a reminder: everything I mention in these videos is analysis, not a signal. Like I always tell you, analyzing the market and actually trading it are two totally different things. I analyze the market every day, but my actual entry point might be different.

Final Advice

For example, if my analysis says I expect the market to go up, that doesn’t mean you should hit “Buy” immediately. You have to wait for the market to reach the right spot. If you look at the 15-minute chart and have even a basic understanding of trading, you’ll see that at $4,380, there’s a chance for a pullback to maybe $4,350. So, be patient and enter at the right price.

Entering right here might mess up your Risk-to-Reward ratio, depending on your money management style.

Stay happy and successful!