Daily Gold Analysis | Jan 1, 2026 (Thursday)

Alright, let’s have today’s gold analysis. Hello; today is January 1, 2026, and all banks are closed today. This means that today we not only have no economic news or movements, but most markets, such as currency pairs and gold, are completely closed, and all markets are in a holiday state.

However, if we want to have our analysis, in the weekly timeframe where one day still remains, gold is in a state where I suspect it will not stay this way until the candle closes on Friday night. But in the daily timeframe, what happened was that gold — let me check in the one-hour timeframe — broke this area we had in mind (the $4,380 range) and even went lower than that.

After that, it gave a retracement to around that same area and a bit higher. If we want to examine it more precisely, the price gave us a retracement to the 38 Fibonacci level and then dropped again. Now, what has happened? If we want to see the 4-hour timeframe, our previous move that started from here (the $3,886 range) has now reached the 38 level.

According to what I told you in the video a few days ago, we saw that gold dropped until it reached this same breakout area we had here ($4,380) and now it is exactly on that same area. The 4-hour candle has also closed very well as a pin bar; of course, we had another pin bar before that which was, in a way, reversed.

Now, what might happen to gold? First: if we want to draw it more precisely, it’s better to draw it from here; we are now on the 38 Fibonacci level. Even if we draw it the same way as before, it is expected that gold comes into these areas, namely (around $4,300), and from here, has a support move to the upside.

The pattern we expect is such that the price either moves up from these same areas and from this same region (the $4,300 range); this is the first move we can expect for gold and is actually our first consideration.

My second expectation for gold is that the price rises to these areas, namely the breakout zone that happened here (the $4,466 range), and turns back down from there. When we say it turns back from here, it means it can even correct to the 50 level (the $4,220 range) and consider this area as a support. This is the second scenario we can imagine for gold.

This first scenario was very, very optimistic, and we can consider this second scenario as a moderate case. But the third scenario is that we witness a drop right from here, which is a very pessimistic state; meaning a drop to the 50 level (the $4,220 range) and after that, the price either touches these same areas (the $4,466 range) or goes upward. Of course, if the price comes down to the 50 level, the probability of it returning completely to the upside becomes very low, and my expectation is that it touches these areas again and after that, we witness the continuation of gold’s drop to the next support areas. In this state, no specific support can be envisioned anymore, and this is actually the worst possible scenario.

I will personally wait for now until the London market opens to see what position gold is in, and I will perform my trades there. But currently, these three scenarios are seen for gold, and in my opinion, the first scenario has the highest probability of success. This means if I am awake during the Asia session and gold reaches the $2,630 area (the $2,630 range), I will personally take a long (buy) position and place my stop below this same shadow (the $2,625 range).

Otherwise, it’s possible that even until the start of the London or even New York session, we see gold fluctuating in these same areas; meaning it plays around here until the start of the London session or even New York and then starts its move upward. This matter depends entirely on seeing how much liquidity is in the market and how much capital enters the market.

Given that it is the beginning of the New Year and Friday is considered a bridge day between holidays, we are facing bank holidays in the New Zealand, Japan, China, and Swiss Franc markets. We know that in this time, the market may not see much volume and there is even a possibility that we close the weekly candle in these same areas. Be very careful, observe capital management, and preferably, if you perform any trades, let them be scalps. Stay happy and successful.