Daily Gold Analysis | Jan 5, 2026 (Monday)
Hello, let’s have a daily analysis of gold. Today is January 5th, 2026; it has become difficult for us to say 2026. Well, the expectation we had for gold was that it would start a bullish move from this area, which was the 38% Fibonacci level. I said we could set up three scenarios, with the first one being more likely.
We moved up to $4,400 on Friday and then had a drop. One of the friends mentioned in the comments: ‘Well, yes, this 4400 was a very round point for the market and we should have expected a decline from it.’ You see, what happened was that it reversed, but it didn’t hit my stop-loss. If I had opened my trade here, for example—which I think I opened around $4,320—my stop-loss was below this 38% area, around the $4,290 range. My take-profit was at $4,500.
What happened is that it reversed but didn’t hit my stop-loss. When I open a trade, I use ‘Set and Forget’; I leave it aside until I see it has hit either the TP or the stop. So, what happens? Although I closed my trade here, I’ll tell you the reason. I closed my trade around here with the New York market opening.
Look, we had a gap here—a price gap that the market hadn’t seen at all ($4,320 to $4,325 range). We usually call it a CME gap because it happened during a market holiday. The market was closed on January 1st and couldn’t see the price here. Now, what happened? Our downward move started exactly at 17:17 Dubai time. From 17:17 Dubai time, we started the downward move, filled this gap, went a bit below it, and the market started rising again from the 38% Fibonacci level.
The CME gap gets filled at 17:17 with the opening of the COMEX (Commodity Exchange). When the US market opens, COMEX traders reach a conclusion (with very heavy volume) that:
- There is a gap here and we must come to fill it.
- From a classic perspective, we had a trendline here (from 4,400 to 4,295). Although I don’t personally believe in these trendlines, we had one that needed a pullback. Since I work more with Fibonacci, there should have been a pullback to the 38% Fibonacci level.
What is our expectation for today? We expect the market to at least reach the $4,500 area, which is the broken area of this zone, somewhere between $4,470 and $4,500. However, if you see another drop with the opening of the CME market today (17:17 Dubai time or around 4:52 or 4:53 PM Iran time), be sure that it wants to come and fill this gap again (4,350 to 4,335). It might reverse from here or even break below this area.
So, if you took a long position at the US opening (I didn’t, as I was asleep and never sacrifice my peace for a trade), but if your trade is open and in profit, definitely close it if you see a drop again at the CME opening. I expect that we will most likely see the 38% Fibonacci level again. If we reach this area and see a drop, we could see the 50% Fibonacci level at the $4,320 area.
These are all analyses; I won’t enter the market until I see confirmation. I won’t enter another trade here because I have already done my save profit here, I have taken my profit from the market. Key areas: if I see a breakout, I will enter in the direction of the market ($4,480); if I see a decline, I will enter in the direction of the market. If we have a pullback to the 4,310 zone, I will go long again. If my stop gets hit, I will wait and go long at 4,320. Stay happy and successful.
