Daily Gold Analysis | Jan 6, 2026 (Tuesday)

Hello, let’s have a daily analysis of gold. According to the analysis we did yesterday, gold continued its movement

upward to the point we had in mind ($4,475). I personally opened my sell position from this area ($4,468), and I’ll explain the reason to you

The reason I have a bearish outlook on gold today, what is it? If we open the daily time frame, we can see that here on the daily chart, we had a change in direction here. There was a trading cluster here (around $4,480) and the price came exactly up to that trading cluster on today’s chart. On the other hand, if we look at gold on the 15-minute or even the 1-hour chart, it doesn’t really matter which, first we have a CME gap here that needs to be filled ($4,325 to $4,340). Secondly, this is exactly where our breakup point was, our break-even ($4,459), and the price came right up to the break-even. And even right now, if we look at gold, it has shown a reaction to this area. It’s exactly the same area we talked about in yesterday’s video and we expected gold to reach it.

From this point in the market, my outlook is bearish. And where could it go? Our first take-profit for this bearish outlook, if the London market opens bearishly and negative news comes out for gold or positive news for the US dollar index, our expectation is for the market to be bearish. The best thing you can do is wait for the London market to open. With the opening of the London market, if you see a negative reaction in the market, you can take a sell position on gold.

I myself took a position from here ($4,473). What’s the reason? The reason is that every day at 9:30 Dubai time, if I’m going to see a reversal in the market, I see it here and exactly at 9:31 Dubai time today, I saw this market reversal and took a sell position at 9:32 when I saw this bearish candle. But anyway, I took my sell position. My stop is set exactly above this zone ($4,475). If it goes above this zone, my view is that the market will be bullish.

But even right now, it’s possible this downward move that happened was just a pullback to the zone that was broken ($4,449) and now it’s continuing its movement. We have to wait and see. But if we see a reversal in these zones ($4,460), we can say that gold has turned bearish. But nothing is ever 100% certain or guaranteed, so we have to wait for the market’s reaction when it opens and then make our trade.

But if the market is indeed going to experience a significant decline from its current position, what specific and achievable targets can we realistically set for gold? As I have previously mentioned, if we carefully draw a precise Fibonacci retracement from the very beginning of this substantial upward move ($3,875 to $4,551) on the daily time frame, we can see that we hit exactly the 38% level and now we’re right at the border of the 50%, 0%, and 23% levels. This is one of my methods for identifying a bearish market, which highlights this point for us here: the 50%, 0%, and 23% levels are a really good spot for the market to reverse. If we look at the 50% level, it has hit exactly 50% and is working like clockwork.

But what exactly can we effectively do right now? The initial and primary target we need to consider is this specific area ($4,333) where we also currently have a noticeable gap. Most likely, it will even significantly surpass this existing gap and I will point that out for you with a TP1. And TP2 that we can set, which is a good point, is the 50% Fibonacci, which is a breaker block that hasn’t been used yet. We can also consider this as our second target ($4,218).

I prefer to wait considering that gold has reached a round price, which is $4,500, and it’s really a round number. And now we can see that global conditions are generally changing. Naturally, what I can do is that I don’t consider taking profit here 100%. I secure profits on 50% here ($4,217), given that the trade volume is high, and I leave the rest for a further drop. But if I see a reversal reaction here, meaning I see that the market is turning around at this point, what I do is I close my trade here with the price reversal and secure all my profits 100%. Wishing you happiness and success.