$400 Gold Rally or $150 Drop?! February 20, 2026
Market Structure & Fibonacci Confluence
Gold (XAU/USD) remains strictly within its projected bullish structure. Price action is currently centered on a critical retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, following a decisive breakout of previous swing highs. This zone has successfully flipped from resistance to a primary institutional support.
Macro Context & Volatility Warning
Today, February 20th, presents a high-impact volatility window. With the release of German/UK PMIs followed by US GDP and Core PCE/PPI data, we anticipate significant liquidity sweeps. Traders should remain cautious of sharp, non-directional fluctuations prior to the primary trend resumption.
Key Technical Observations
- Fibonacci Confluence: Price has reclaimed and is consolidating above the 61.8% equilibrium level.
- Structure Validation: A textbook break-and-retest of the descending trendline confirms a healthy expansion phase.
- Immediate Support: The 5015 USD zone serves as the primary Point of Interest (POI) for long positions.
- Invalidation Point: A sustained close below 5000–5004 USD would neutralize the bullish momentum, potentially triggering a deeper correction toward 4947 USD liquidity pools.
Outlook & Targets
The primary bias remains Strongly Bullish as long as the 5015 USD support holds. The technical “magnet” for this move is positioned at 5400 USD. We assign a 60% probability to an immediate upward expansion from current levels.
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a buy or sell signal or financial advice.
